Wednesday, June 22, 2011

NBA Draft Piker Presents: Jimmer Fredette & Kawhi Leonard

Greetings draft fans. Apologies for the mini-hiatus, but I'm back with a vengeance and ready to talk NBA draft. First up, a man who needs no introduction, Jimmer Fredette.

That said, here is an introduction. Jimmer exploded onto the NCAA scene this year like a Sammy Sosa corked bat, tearing through team after team with the otherworldly confidence that only a 22-year old Mormon named Jimmer could possibly muster.

Watching BYU basketball was a bit like watching a Pop Warner football game in which the coach's son plays tailback. BYU would inbound the ball to Jimmer and more or less stand around hoping for him to score. There were some possessions in which nobody else dribbled the ball. If Jimmer picked up his dribble he would pass it to a teammate, only to follow after his pass, take the ball back on a hand-off and start all over again. Every play was Jimmer. If you've Linkread Michael Lewis' classic book, "The Blind Side", you'll recall that Michael Oher's high school coach essentially distilled his playbook down to one play because Oher was so physically dominant. The play was called "run the ball to the side Michael Oher is on and watch him move the defense". BYU's offense ran one play called "maybe Jimmer will make something good happen". To the right is a graphical representation of the BYU offense.

Here is what it looked like when Jimmer played against college kids: Jimmer Highlights! Pretty cool, I know. However, it is safe to say that Jimmer playing in the pros will not look anything like that video. Considering his glaring lack of athleticism, I firmly beleive most NBA teams have a guy who can guard Jimmer one-on one. Rajon Rondo, Thabo Sefolosha, Ronnie Brewer, John Salmons, Ty Lawson, Deron Williams, Kyle Lowry, heck even Baron Davis could probably shut him down if he wasn't so busy guarding giant blue balls backwards.

Having said that, there is surprising value in having a guy who can simply stand in the corner and knock down threes at an extremely high rate. Just ask the Heat, who would be NBA champs right now if Mike Miller didn't have 2 mutilated thumbs and if James Jones wasn't mysteriously benched for the entire NBA Finals. So the bottom line is Jimmer has a very good chance of being a useful player offensively. J.J. Redick of the Orlando Magic has already blazed this trail. Once a superb shooter learns the speed of the NBA game, and begins to understand the athleticism of his opponents he can be effective. He may not score as frequently as in college, but he can score efficiently.

The real question is, can Jimmer guard anyone or anything in the NBA. At 6'2", with poor foot speed, and not a whole lot of strength, the intuitive answer would be no. Most NBA point guards will carve Jimmer up off the dribble, while almost any shooting guard should be able to dominate the stormin' Mormon in the post, not to mention shoot over the top of him at any point, from any range. Jimmer on the defensive end is going to look something like a Revolutionary War-era soldier on a modern battlefield. He will have the distinct disadvantage of not being able to shoot until he sees the whites of his opponents eyes. Wait, scratch that, that's not right. If there is one thing he can do it is shoot from anywhere. Unfortunately whoever he is guarding will likely have the same opportunity, and I am guessing they will mostly choose to do so from right next to the hoop.

This means that in order to be an effective player overall Jimmer will have to either improve drastically defensively (something that J.J. Redick has worked extremely hard at and more or less accomplished), or somehow have his prodigious offensive skills translate to the NBA more or less unchanged (something that Stepehn Curry has somehow more or less accomplished).

Sadly I don't see it. I'm guessing in the NBA Jimmer will be a little less effective than Kirk Hinrich, and somewhat more a little more effective than Sasha Vujacic. Where does that leave him? How about a more virginal Boobie Gibson. Would you want that on your team? I didn't think so. On the bright side Sasha has some nice cars, and Kirk has some nice goggles, so it won't all be downhill for Jimmer.

Next up Kawhi Leonard, who is more or less the basketball inverse of Jimmer Fredette. He also arguably has as cool a name as Jimmer. If it gives us nothing else, this year's draft will treat us to a bunch of great names. Jimmer. Kawhi. Bismack Biyombo. Kemba Walker. Markieff Morris (say it! it's fun! it makes you feel like you have a little baby Derrick Williams style lisp!). Even Brandon Knight makes me smile because it sounds so much like a superhero alias along the lines of Bruce Wayne, Clark Kent, or Hugh Jackman (that is Wolverine's real name, no?). Run little girl, Hugh Jackman's pulsating abs indicate that he is only moments away from a transformation into the WOLVERINE!!!!
As i was saying, Kawhi Leonard is about as far removed from the Jimmer as a basketball player can be. If the Jimmer was a food he would be a really nasty, smelly old piece of sushi that a famous chef made a few days ago. It seems sort of cool and appetizing if you don't look too closely, but you don't actually want to put it in your mouth. Kawhi Leonard is like a chicken parm sandwich from your favorite neighborhood Italian joint. Nobody is going to win a michelin star for that chicken parm sandwich but it also not going to disappoint. It's tried and true, and it doesn't taste the slightest bit like play-doh.

Watch these highlights and you'll see what I mean. All right so his jump shot has just about the worst mechanics you've ever seen (Reggie Miller leg kick, check! Shawn Marion style wrist flick, dart throw motion, check! Shaq style shot put from the shoulder, check!). Apparently, he has enormous hands, which I am told makes it very difficult to shoot a basketball from range. On the other hand, those gigantic oven mitts become a huge asset down by the basket, exactly where any intelligent coach will have Kawhi Leonard doing the vast majority of his dirty work.

Leonard is most often compared with Gerald Wallace due to his imposing physicality, extreme athleticism, and probably more than anything, the fact that they both have corn rows. I think that comparison is apt, but I would also throw young Ron Artest and young Corey Maggette into the mix. Like Artest, Leonard should have the strength and quickness (if not the crazy) to be an extremely disruptive defender who can guard multiple positions (potentially small forward, shooting guard, or even power forward). Like Maggette, Leonard should be able to launch himself into people down low and get to the free throw line at an extremely high rate. On the flip side, who is to say Leonard doesn't play moronic offense like Ron, heaving low percentage threes, and then trot down and put in a half-assed, Corey Magette style defensive effort. These are the mysteries of the draft.
It is perhaps a blessing in disguise that Leonard has such an abominable, and potentially unfixable jump shot. If he commits himself to rebounding, defense, and using his physicality to score in the post, and in transition he will be an extremely productive player, albeit not a big-name star. Leonard would be a great fit on teams like Sacramento, or Golden State that already have a few established high volume scorers.

Unfortunately the Draft is tomorrow and I did not have time to get to all the prospects I would have liked to... Here are my impressions:

Kenneth Faried: like him, DeJuan Blair-esque. No way he will be bad.

Alec Burks: decent athlete, with a solid all around game, including mid-range moves (a lost art) also has an oddly large butt, which never hurts!

Klay Thompson: good rebounder for a guard, but looks like he is in slow-motion, or playing high school ball. I wouldn't get too excited.

Marcus Morris: doesn't really stand out in any way. No aspect of his game impresses me.

Markieff Morris: see Marcus Morris.

Chris Singleton: he is an absolute beast, and a relentless defender. Usually scouts get excited about this kind of player, why is he flying so far under the radar? He might want to think about changing his name to Chrismack Biyombo.

Tristan Thompson: really, really big, with limited athleticism but decent touch and feel around the rim. Can someone please tell me what Enes Kanter has that Tristan doesn't?

Iman Shumpert: looks similar to Burks. Decent athlete, with 3-point range and ability to finish at the hoop. I Like his swagger. Knicks- please take him.

Marshon Brooks: yikes, I don't know what to think. On the one hand he is undersized and takes ridiculously stupid shots constantly. On the other hand his highlight reel is more impressive than just about anyone in this draft. If you like Brandon Jennings then Marshon Brooks is for you.

Darko Time!

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