NBA Draft Piker Presents: Why The Heat Might Lose & Bismack Biyombo

First off I want to thank Erik Spoelstra for taking my advice in an earlier post. On the last possession of game three, Spoelstra decided to put his 3rd best large defender (Udonis Haslem) on Dirk Nowitzki, rather than his 4th best large defender (Chris Bosh, unless you feel strongly about Juwan Howard, which puts Bosh in 5th place). The Result? Check out the 3:06 mark of this video to see what real defense looks like.

Nice adjustment Senor Spoelstra, but you just lost game 4, and are tied 2-2. Got any more adjustments? I sure do.

Here are some pertinent statistics on the Heat's 4 scrubby perimeter players from basketball value.com and nba.com's statscube.

First off, Adjusted plus/minus. This stat tells you how well a team does when a player is on the floor, versus when he is on the bench. It is called "adjusted" because it attempts to control for the quality of the other guys on the court. For more info click here.

James Jones: +1.23 Regular Season -.30 Playoffs
Mario Chalmers -.55 Regular Season -3.47 Playoffs
Mike Bibby -3.81 Regular Season -8.84 Playoffs
Mike Miller -7.74 Regular Season -2.46 Playoffs

Next up True Shooting Percentage, which is a lot like field goal percentage, except it accounts for the fact that a 3 pointer is worth 3 points, a 2 pointer is worth 2 points and free throws are worth 1 point. Makes sense right? For you math whizzes our there, the formula is: PTS/(2*(FGA + (.44*FTA)))

James Jones: 62.9% Regular Season 68.8% Playoffs
Mario Chalmers 53.8% Regular Season 56.6% Playoffs
Mike Bibby 57.0% Regular Season 37.1% Playoffs
Mike Miller 52.5% Regular Season 40.4% Playoffs

Please also note that Mike Miller is a significantly better rebounder than the other 3 gents. The stats, as well as common sense bear this out, but you'll have to take my word for it because I'm tired of data entry.

Now during the regular season, these four chappies split up 87.4 minutes per game roughly evenly after March 1st, which was Mr. Bibby's first appearance with El Heat. During the Playoffs, the four amigos have gotten, on average, only 61.3 minutes per game combined. No small wonder their minutes have been reduced, as the Heat really want to win playoff games and they have Dwyane Wade and LeBron James on their team. Given the stats you've seen above, how would you split up 61 minutes between the four available scrubs?

If I had my druthers it would look something like this:
James Jones : 25 minutes
Mario Chalmers: 21 Minutes
Mike Miller: 15 minutes
Mike Bibby: 0 minutes

Erik Spoelstra thinks otherwise. Here are their actual average minutes through 4 NBA finals games:
Mario Chalmers: 27.9 minutes
Mike Bibby: 17.9 minutes
Mike Miller: 15.5 minutes
James Jones: 0 minutes

EGADS!!!! Bibby is probably killing them right? Right. And if you have watched these four games, I didn't have to tell you that, you already knew it. Lastly, I know some critics will think that this is not a fair comparison, because Bibby and Chalmers are point guards and Mike Miller and James Jones are small forwards. This is a wrong thought. The Heat offense is run not through the point guard position, but rather through LeBron and D-Wade, who are also more capable of bringing the ball up the floor than Bibby (as J.J. Barea is proving) and possibly Chalmers. Therefore, the job of all four of these scrubs is to stand in the corner and knock down threes.

Mario Chalmers can sort of do it (36.4% from three in the finals) and is an active defender. Mike Bibby can't do it (31.3%) and is a certified corpse. Mike Miller can't either (30.8%) but at least he rebounds! Wouldn't it be nice if the Big Three could pass to... oh I don't know maybe the 2010-2011 3-point shooting champion? Wait a minute, wasn't that James Jones?!?!?!? YES! It was. He's right there on your bench Spoelstra. Has been the whole series, collecting dust. Just a thought, maybe he deserves a chance. For another data point, look at the photo at the top. That's right, James Jones probably won that loose ball from Bibby! If that isn't definitive proof I don't know what is. Below, Mike Bibby in his natural habitat, on the bench playing dress-up with Josh Smith.


Now on to more important things than the fate of the NBA Finals....Bismack Biyombo!

Like the enigmatic Enes Kanter, most pro scouts and GM's have probably seen this guy play once. In fact, up until a month or so ago his name on every NBA draft site i saw (including ESPN.com) was "Bismarck Biyombo". The way he says his own name at the opening of the clip below explains why. So yes, some NBA GM will almost certainly use a lottery pick on a guy whose real name he probably didn't know just a few months earlier. While Enes Kanter "dominated" (see earlier post for explanation of quotation marks) the 2010 Nike Hoops Summit, Biyombo had his coming out party at the 2011 edition. Highlights here!

The first thing that jumps out at you is his supernatural leaping ability, which instantly draws comparisons to recent Congolese import Serge Ibaka (at left, Ibaka shows off a mellow, Congolese Blue Steel). Defensively, he certainly reminds me of Ibaka, not only because of his shot-blocking ability, but also because he moves his feet so well, and puts forth a great effort. Many of his blocks at the Nike Hoop Summit were created because he tracks back hard in transition. Watch him challenge an open 3-point shooter after blocking a shot 5:31 into the clip. He sprints around two teammates to run a guy off the three point line, and though he ends up scoring this falls squarely on the shoulders of Biyombo's teammates. Bismack did exactly what you are supposed to do.

Offensively, he knows what he is capable of, and it is flying at the rim, posting people up, and smartly passing out of double teams. He doesn't attempt a single jumper in the clip, and his two made free throws look like an homage to Tyson Chandler's arc-less dart-throwing. This is good in the sense that he will likely shoot a very high percentage in the pros, however, in order to become a really good offensive player he will have to develop a decent jumper and a face-up game (see: Griffin, Blake). Given how quick his feet are, and the fact that he seems to be able to finish around the rim, Biyombo's offensive game may end up looking a lot more like Nene's (please bring back the 'fro Nene, we miss it) than Ibaka's. If he takes a few big steps forward that is. All in all I would say that unless you are a Utah Jazz fan, and are one decent guy away from the playoffs, any lottery-bound team would be better served with Bismack than Kemba Walker, and I actually like Kemba.

Darko Time! (T-Wolves fans must see!)

Next up: Jonas Valanciunas vs. Nikola Mirotic! Euro showdown!